****UPDATE: I am relieved to report that the Israeli Police blocked the March of the Macabees from taking place. The protesters had violated the agreed terms of the march, bringing with them inflammatory signs and the obvious intent to incite violence. They were met with horse-mounted police forces and water cannons. You can read about it here.
Meanwhile, I am leaving the original post below as the deeply worrying dynamics I wrote about are still very much in effect. This is not the first time that ultranationalists have attempted to incite broader chaos during this war. Settler violence in the West Bank targeting Palestinian civilians, private property, and public institutions are at an all time high. The blocking of this march will very likely be used as a justification for more.
Thankfully someone in the Israeli Police (or perhaps higher up the political echelon) had the responsibility and initiative to hold the marchers to account. The real threat that violent ultranationalists pose to Israelis and Palestinians alike is only magnified by Israeli political instability and the ongoing Gaza War. The only solution to this threat in the interim is the establishment of a responsible government not beholden to these elements.****
*Original post below:
This evening’s (1st night Hannukah) planned March of the Macabees through the Muslim Quarter in the Old City of Jerusalem is a disaster in the making. The potential for immediate violence is high and regardless will be used to justify WB rioting and terrorism while the Gaza War is ongoing.
The organizers are prominent ultranationalists who have declared their ambitions to remove the Waqf and “restore full Jewish control to Jerusalem and the Temple Mount.” These are not state actors but are closely linked to Nat’l Security minister and Otzma Yehudit party head Itamar Ben-Gvir.
Opposition head, MK Yair Lapid has condemned the march as a violent provocation and blatant attempt by Kahanists to set more fires and cause more death and destruction. Other members of Knesset have argued that protests that are likely to open another front in the war cannot be tolerated.
Police have limited participants to 200 and said they will change the route or shut it down altogether if large numbers engage in “inflammatory chants or signs of incitement”. But the track record of the Israeli police on annual ultranationalist Jerusalem Day flag marches is far from encouraging.
This march is occurring with the Gaza War ongoing during a severe regime crisis stemming from the current Israeli government’s failure to prevent the 7 October Hamas invasion and rape, massacre, and kidnapping of Israeli civilians and likely impending collapse of the governing coalition.
As Andrea Malji and I demonstrate in our article in Politics, Religion & Ideology, these factors often contribute to a perfect storm of high levels of societal violence targeting minority sacred sites – more religious democracies in regime crises facing violence from the targeted minority.
Extremist societal actors often engage in religious violence in these contexts to boost their political influence and to weaken more moderate political and societal actors. They do not operate in a vacuum; violence by the targeted minority makes extremist agendas much more politically salient.
It is however the responsibility of a state’s political leadership to recognize these dynamics and not be controlled by them. Case in point, PM Netanyahu knows exactly what Ben Gvir and company are trying to accomplish, but refuses to absorb the political cost to his coalition by stopping them. 8/n
With a horrific war ongoing and extremist actors in Israel (and among the Palestinians and ME at large) eager to make the crisis worse, it is beyond time for responsible leadership. Establishing Israel’s war cabinet w/ Gantz and Gallant and w/o Smotrich & Ben Gvir was an important first step.
Reformulating the Israeli governing coalition to make it not dependent upon its most extreme partner is even more important intermediate step. This would require from Netanyahu to place the good of the country and region at large above himself.
To say that this is unlikely is a gross understatement. While democratic elections in the heat of war are not happening, government dissolution led by disaffected members of Likud and other coalition parties and establishment of a temporary caretaker national unity government may be possible.
This post was originally published to Facebook and Bluesky on my personal accounts on 7 December 2023.
Dr. Ariel Zellman 